Walmart Moms Post-Election Focus Poll - Nov. 5, 2014
On behalf of Walmart, Public Opinion Strategies and Purple Strategies completed an 800 sample survey of voters who cast ballots in yesterday's elections. This poll was conducted the evening of November 4th, and has a margin of error for the entire sample of +/-3.1%, and +/- 10% for our sub sample of Walmart Moms. Fully eleven percent of the sample was comprised of Walmart Moms — women who had shopped at Walmart in the past month who have a child under the age of 18 living in the household.
In the last three previous elections (2008, 2010 and 2012), Walmart Moms have sided with the winning side in each — voting for President Obama in '08 and '12 and support Congressional Republicans in 2010.
Breaking with their tradition of siding with the winning side, Walmart Moms gave Democrats a 51%-46% margin in Congressional races on election night. This is nearly the opposite of voters overall, who gave Republicans the edge by a 52%-46% margin.
Half (49%) of Walmart Moms made their final decisions on which candidate to support for Congress after October 1 — that's ten points higher than the overall sample. This mirrors our focus group conversations, in which Moms said they were late-engagers in the political campaigns, as they were overwhelmingly focused on family issues and concerns rather than on political campaigns.
Further, fully 36% of Walmart Moms said they went on-line in the last few days of the political campaign to look up information regarding the candidates, slightly more than voters overall (32%).
Just one-quarter of Walmart Moms believe the country is headed in the right direction (24%), while 67% say the country is off on the wrong track. While these results are a bit more positive than voters as a whole, they still reflect a very negative political environment – as seen in our most recent focus groups in Charlotte, New Orleans, Little Rock and Des Moines.
Our post-election sample of voters disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing by a 51%-45% margin, with Walmart Moms rating the President similarly at 51%-43%. The intensity of disapproval among Walmart Moms toward the President is significantly less negative than it is among all voters. While 40% of all voters strongly disapprove of the job President Obama is doing, just 31% of Walmart Moms share that same sentiment.
Voters overall were more likely to say their vote was a message opposing President Obama than one supporting him (32%-17%, 48% not a message), Walmart Moms were much more mixed in their attitudes, with 24% saying their vote was one of opposition to the President, 21% saying their vote was in support, and more than half saying their vote was not a message.
In each of the last three elections, we've found Walmart Moms to be both proven swing voters and siding with the winning party. Similar to the 2012 Presidential election, these women voted for Democrats, but not by nearly wide enough margins to forestall major GOP gains. (These women supported Obama by 56%-43% in 2012, but supported DEM candidates by a much narrower 52%-46% score in 2014.)
While President Obama is as unpopular with these Moms as with voters overall, just a quarter of Moms say they were trying to send a message in opposition to the President. To reconnect with these voters, incoming elected officials should work to show their commitment not just to the economy, but to local issues like education. These Moms will continue to be a critical swing bloc crucial for both parties headed into the 2016 Presidential election.